Recession 2016 Update

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONNo two recessions are ever exactly alike, and history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme ( Read more... )

Somewhat surprising given what is clearly a significant slowdown - if not outright 'Growth Recession' - in the states, the Economic Cycle Research Institute finds their proprietary Long Leading indexes are pointing towards a turn-around later this year on a global scale in both growth and pricing power ( Read more... )

The Ceridian UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell for the third month in a row in September, and was falling at increasingly faster rates heading into October. In the past, the depth and type of move seen over the last three months has only occurred with the economy tipping in to, or already in, recession.

My added emphasis in red:

Ceridianindex.com
( Read more... )

In July:Prieur du Plessis
July Global PMI Roundup: Manufacturing Tanks

Growth in the global manufacturing industry tanked in July. My GDP-weighted manufacturing PMI for the major economies sank for the fifth consecutive month to 50.9 from 52.8 in June. The manufacturing sectors in only four out of 20 countries are showing faster growth, while ( Read more... )

"Great Recession" has really stuck as the name given to the downturn that officially began in late 2007 and officially ended in mid-2009... and unofficially started back in 2006 and unofficially continues in many ways to this day.

The downturn certainly has felt greatly awful, but how does it measure up against other recessions? Was it really and ( Read more... )

Reuters
Slowdown Won't End This Year, Says ECRI Economist, Thomson Reuters: Reuters Insider
The global ECRI Long Leading Index turned decisively down at the start of the year, well before problems in Greece were rocking the markets, and even well before the disasters in Japan. Since then, ECRI US-specific leading indexes have also headed south, and ( Read more... )

Paul Krugman
What A Drag

From Goldman Sachs, an estimate of the federal budget impact on growth. The gray line shows the direct impact, the blue line includes the induced “multiplier” effects. Notice that this shows the rate of change, not the level effects. I explained the difference a while back.

What you can see is that the unwinding of the ( Read more... )

CNBC/Reuters
Global Recovery Sputters After Several Strong Quarters

It was fun while it lasted.
After several strong quarters, the global economic recovery appears to be sputtering. In particular, the industrial sector, a key driver of the bounce-back from a historic worldwide recession, looks to be fraying.


( Read more... )

After many months of relatively high expectations, now hit by a run of not-so-great economic news, this week global stock markets, commodities and more all appear to be in some varying degrees of a corrective mode.

See also recent posts with the tags:  "Growth Recessions" and "Double Dips"

CNBC
Pisani: More Bad Signs for US Economy
A deceleration in the ( Read more... )

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC this morning to discuss the impending downturn in global industrial growth.
(Watch Video)
Professional Report Excerpt
Global Industrial Growth Downturn
(Full report received by Pro clients on 27-Jan-11)
Based on our Long Leading Index of global industrial growth, we expect a downturn to start by summer. ( Read more... )